Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

The referendum that is scottish Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent potential for a ‘no’ vote, whilst the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies understand the results associated with Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 % of voters deciding against dissolving the 300-year union of nations and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and votes that are losing because wide as 10 percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns were split straight down the middle.

The truth is, polls were all around the destination: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from the six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote into the weeks leading up to your referendum. And although these were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the wedding day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory.

Margins of mistake

Perhaps Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured away ages ago. While the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online recreations outfit that is betting had already determined to pay out bettors who had their funds on a’no’ vote a few times prior to the referendum even occurred. And even though there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from the position of supreme confidence, because the markets that are betting rating the probability of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the least a week before the vote took place. It absolutely was a forecast that, unlike compared to the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead as much as the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared with the betting markets, and why is the news in such thrall to their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling companies openly admit that their studies are inaccurate, frequently advising that we ought to allow for a margin of mistake, commonly around five percent. This means that in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their information is utterly useless. The existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless in a race where one party, according to the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent.

The Wrong Questions

There are many factors that make polls unreliable, too many, in fact, to record here. Sometimes the test size of respondents is too low, or it is unrepresentative of the population. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are sloppy or dishonest about recording information. However the ultimate, prevailing reason why polls fail is which they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people who they are going to vote for, they should really be asking the relevant question that the bookies always ask: ‘Who do you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers implies that this question yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also think about the opinions of these because it may yield more honest answers. around them, and maybe also’

Dishonest Responses

In a instance for instance the Scottish referendum, where there is a big and popular movement for change, those interviewed by pollsters tend to be more likely to express their support for change, while curbing their concerns concerning the feasible negative consequences. When expected about an issue on the location, it’s easier to express the perceived popular view. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might represent the appealing proposition of severing ties with a remote and unpopular federal government in Westminster, but it also means uncertainty and possible economic chaos.

As Wolfers states, ‘There is just a tendency that is historical polling to overstate the reality of success of referendums, perhaps because we are more willing to share with pollsters we will vote for change than to actually do so. Such biases are less inclined to distort polls that ask people who they think will win. Indeed, in providing their objectives, some respondents may also mirror on whether or otherwise not they believe polling that is recent.

In a nutshell, when expected whether they’d vote for an independent Scotland, a significant number of Scots evidently lied. Gamblers, on the other hand, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close Wynn Everett License that is following Choose

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 per cent in modern times. Now the selection of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino license has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image:

Suffolk Downs, the historic thoroughbred horseracing track in East Boston, is to close, officials have announced. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the sole East Massachusetts casino permit for his or her Wynn Everett project, which will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring an unlikely casino repeal vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the first casualty of this week’s selection process. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the nail that is final the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in their state. Suffolk is certainly one of only two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, together with only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort was to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the very least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better possible to generate jobs and start up new avenues of revenue for the state. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the announcement that the track will never have the ability to continue immediately after the Gaming Commission’s decision had been made public.

End associated with the Track

‘Our company is extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth tens of thousands of jobs, small business and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We are going to be meeting with employees and horsemen over the next several times to explore exactly how we wind down racing operations, as a legacy that is 79-year of rushing in Massachusetts will be coming to a finish, resulting in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking people.’

The industry has been hit by way of a 40 percent decrease in modern times and Suffolk’s closure will probably impact hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others who make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The necessity to safeguard Suffolk Downs ended up being among the primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the decision to go with Wynn has angered many individuals.

‘Today’s decision to honor the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents away from work,’ said Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could minmise the jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Rich History

Numerous industry workers feel betrayed by politicians therefore the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so hard to obtain that gaming bill passed with all the indisputable fact that it would definitely save yourself the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and manager of a farm that is breeding who added that the ruling would ‘probably almost … put most of the farms like mine out of business.’

Suffolk Downs started in 1935, immediately after parimutuel betting had been legalized into the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap here, breaking the history along the way. The race ended up being attended by 40,000 people. The track has hosted races featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar over the years. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert here on the track’s infield in front side of 24,000 fans that are screaming.

Fundamentally, though, a history that is richn’t enough to conserve Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill that has been built to rescue this famous old racetrack seemingly have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

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Is Donald Trump intent on saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And will he?

The word from The Donald is he says he’s exactly what AC has been missing all these years that he can, and what’s more. As the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors this week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment ready to register for bankruptcy, the billionaire real property mogul announced that he is ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt.

Asked by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would step in to truly save The Trump Plaza and its own at-risk sister home, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what goes on. If I can help the folks of Atlantic City I’ll do it.’

Later, on Twitter, and clearly warming to their theme, Trump stated: ‘I left Atlantic City years ago, good timing. Now we might buy back, at lower cost, to save Plaza & Taj. They had been run poorly by funds!’

Trump was hugely critical of his former business Trump Entertainment in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, maybe getting wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched appropriate proceedings to have his name eliminated from the casinos in an attempt to safeguard his brand, of which he is hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City many years back,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall into a state that is utter of and have otherwise failed to use and manage the casino properties in respect with the high criteria of quality and luxury needed under the permit contract.’

Trump left the nj-new jersey casino industry in 2009, and Trump Entertainment was bought away by a small grouping of hedge fund managers and business bondholders, who had been allowed to retain the brand name in return for a 10 per cent ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized company. He has received nothing regarding the gambling enterprises’ day-to-day operations subsequently.

‘Does anybody notice that Atlantic City lost its miracle when I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It is indeed unfortunate to see what has occurred to Atlantic City. Therefore numerous decisions that are bad the pols over time: airport, convention center, etc.’

Within the early ’80s, Trump embarked on a project that is joint getaway Inn and Harrahs to build the Holiday Inn Casino Hotel. It absolutely was completed in 1984, in which he quickly bought out his company partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the casino that is first ever owned, and this week it closed. Could it be that the notoriously cold-blooded home developer includes a side that is sentimental? Or perhaps is it, just, as many folks think, that he can not resist some publicity that is good?

Promotion Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) believes in the latter explanation.

‘Donald is a guy who likes to see his title in the paper,’ he stated. ‘He’s never ever been shy about looking for publicity or publicity that is obtaining. The question is whether this is more promotion for Donald or whether he could be serious about coming back to Atlantic City in a way that is real. We’ll see down the line. Is Donald Trump wanting to get some promotion, or perhaps is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and compose some checks.’

‘I am able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to come back as a savior,’ consented gaming consultant Steve Norton. ‘ I don’t think Donald’s name would help the casinos that much,’ he said. ‘Our issue is, other casinos have exposed up and cut off traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, so when if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on the top regarding the Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to put his cash where his mouth is?

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